A wink...a shrug...silents speak volumes

Is Overstreet REALLY accurate?

I have been using the Overstreet Price Guide for over 15 years and have found it to be a well constructed and accurate resource. The articles are always well researched and informative. However, I do believe that the pricing is no longer as accurate as it once was. I believe that the reason for this is the advent of online auction services such as Ebay. My feeling was that books that change hands online typically sell for less than those sold in specialty shops or at conventions. This would not overly effect the average value of a given book except for the fact that online trading has reached millions of books a year. On any one day Ebay alone offers 100K + comics for auction. I see an average of 10K Golden age offered per day and nearly three times that many Silver Age. Lets look at two books Superman 149 and X-Men  137.

In the case of Superman #149 I tracked sales of ten copies over several months in FINE condition. The OS Guide prices this book at $72 in FINE but the average sale price on Ebay in that condition was $30.69 which is a 66% difference.

In the case of X-Men #137 I tracked 10 copies in VF/NM condition. The OS guide prices the book at $44 in that condition but the average sale on Ebay in that condition was $25.03 which is a 43% difference.

I conducted this exercise for nearly 100 random comics and have found the same trend on EACH one.

I could understand a variance of say, 20% between Overstreet and what we see on Ebay but variances of over 40% suggest a real disconnect. I would tend to discount this sort of variance in stores or conventions where the condition can be dickered over in person but that is not the case with an online auction. I would suggest that Online auctions, as they grow are having a definite effect on the real world value of collectible comics.

gerald2038
thats the rule of availability and the law of supply and demand my friend....nothing more nothing less...check my comics out...you may find a gem.
May-28-08 06:18:53 PDT Report this comment
make_it_so_marketing
Good Morning!

Actually, IMHO Overstreet is pretty accurate versus Wizard and the
other Price Guides out there.

When buying online from eBayers who don't sell comics as their main
line of sales, you'll get varying degrees of grading or even non-grading.

Most of the discussion threads I see about comics on eBay state that for the most
part that overgrading is rampant. A potential buyer has to allow for that
and figure that the item listed with a poor picture is possibly one to two
grades less in grade and thus bids accordingly at far less than Overstreet pricing.

Only when a buyer finds a seller who knows his/her business will the items
sell for close to Overstreet prices or more for Gold, Silver and Bronze Age comics.

The above opinion is from buying and or selling on eBay for almost 10 years now.

Have Sum Fun Collecting! Enjoyed your post as usual!

Michael
make_it_so_marketing
www.MakeItSoMarketing.com
May-28-08 06:21:11 PDT Report this comment
sholmes202
Thanks for the comments! Yes I have seen some over grading but I have also run into cases of books being under graded as well. That is a grat point though. Especially regarding the pictures. In fact I tend to skip over auctions that have poor photos myself!
May-28-08 07:02:34 PDT Report this comment
make_it_so_marketing
You are welcome... I enjoy your blog posts and will come and
visit your blog again!
May-28-08 07:54:29 PDT Report this comment
lionowk
I actually had the same concerns with Overstreet. I think that the prevalence of CGC grading in the market in the past few years has led people to mistrust the "eye" graded comics, as well as make them less desireable. If there is 1 CGC copy of Hulk #181 and there are 4 uncertified copies, it's almost like 2 separate comics, and the uncertifieds are therefore worth LESS *at auction* than the Overstreet guide price.

Hmmm I'm not always good at getting my ideas across in the first shot, so I'll sum up by saying I speculate that CGC grading has devalued ungraded comics while also undermining the power of Overstreet to appraise prices.

Now, I alternate yearly between getting Overstreet and another price guide so that I can get a feel for long term trends, especially with silver age books.
Jun-01-08 05:58:25 PDT Report this comment

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