Dire Shortage of Vintage Watchmakers Getting Worse - Costs Skyrocketing

I don't remember exactly when I made the decision to start servicing my own wristwatch movements. I'm very glad I did though. I just read an article saying that only about 4400 watchmakers are working today and that number will half within 5 years.

If you just consider the dynamics of supply and demand, you will have to wonder about first, the cost of servicing your watch and then the issue of if you can even get it serviced.

At the moment, I know watchmakers charging $290-300 to clean, oil and adjust (COA) a manual movement. Now, that's at wholesale. So, when you win a watch for $125 and jump for joy, you have only just started your expenditure trail.

I see write-ups on auctions that say,"this watch is running and keeping good time, I ran it for six hours". Then I see another watch and the write up says, "this watch was just serviced". The latter add should say running and keeping time. If they don't?

Those two watches will usually have a final bid within 5% of each other with the non-serviced watch often getting a higher final bid. The winner just missed an important element of value: SERVICE.

I even see high bids for watches that aren't running. I buy them because I hoard movements. I can switch a movement quickly and list the watch with a minty case in a couple of hours. With all that work, what do you suppose I get for a watch like that? Not much more than I paid. Certainly, I didn't get back the money I put into it. If I have to change a part, then I could lose money.

What's going on here? Uneducated buyers. People who don't read the descriptions thoroughly or know what they mean. Sellers who don't know what they're selling and hyping up this watch they found at a flea market they call an estate sale. Don't doubt that for a second, because I have talked to sellers who do just that.

One of the funniest descriptions of all that I see is the seller who claims the watch is wound too tight. Again, uneducated buyers and sellers find each other. A watch that's wound too tight? Doesn't exist. The watch is BROKEN. On the rarest of occasions, I can clean a watch where the mainspring won't move and it will run. Chances of that fixing a watch is pretty rare.

I checked into the institutions offering watch courses. I just saw one what costs $3000, has a waiting list and only graduates nine people a year. I saw one in Switzerland that reminded me of my CPA exam on steroids: 3,000 classroom hours and you have to make your own parts on one of the exams. If you fail one exam, you're out of the program. If you own a castle, you might be admitted and afford the program. But don't worry, you will get a job a one of the major Swiss companies like Rolex or Patek Phillipe.

You can get into an associate degree program at a very few community colleges. It takes four semesters. If you're like me, I already have my graduate work and the idea of traveling 120 miles a day to attend a two hour class isn't that appealing, especially when only two other students are taking the classes with me. What happens if they drop the course?

What do we do? I don't know. I can tell you something though. Working vintage watches on eBay are seriously undervalued. Sometimes, I break a vintage watch down and sell it in pieces and get more than if I sold the watch whole. I don't have to include a band, upload nine photos and worry if it gets to the buyer working or if he or she wants to return it.

The dire shortage of watch makers may not make a difference to eBay vintage watch buyers. They buy whatever sellers through out there and the prices are rising. After all, it says gold (even if it's gold filled).

For me, I'm having second thoughts about all this. I restore a great Hamilton, walk into a jewelry store around the corner and there it sits with a price tag of three times what I paid. I go back two days later and it's gone.

What to do?

Tom Adelstein